Autumn Typhoons and the Days Marked for Travel

About 7 minutes xoxoxox Autumn typhoonsTravel date selectionAlmanac do's and don'tsAutumn equinoxFolklore

I booked my flight to Tokyo for 19 September last week, and the moment I looked up, someone in the group chat had posted: "シルバーウィークに台風が来るかもしれない". It means a typhoon might come during the five-day break.

I hadn't even finished reading the ticket's change-and-refund rules before the forecast arrived first.

This week, several places are waiting for wind

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast for 14–15 September, a tropical depression near the Truk Islands is expected to develop into the next named typhoon within 24 hours, then head north, reaching the waters near the Ogasawara Islands around the 18th, and on the 19th — the very first day of the five-day break — approaching the area south of Japan. This year, Japan's Respect for the Aged Day (21 September), National Citizens' Holiday (22nd) and Autumnal Equinox Day (23rd) join to form a five-day holiday from 19 to 23 September. The agency also cautioned that a stalled autumn rain front could bring heavy rain to places far from the typhoon: on 13–14 September, Tatsuno City in Hyogo Prefecture (たつの市) recorded about 110 mm of rain in one hour, and Akita City's hourly rainfall broke the local record for September.

In the same period, the meteorological authorities of the Taiwan region also said that another tropical depression east of Guam could be upgraded to a typhoon (local reports used the translated name "杜鹃"). One clarification: typhoon numbers and translated names are issued uniformly by official agencies, and different outlets relay them at different moments, so this article cites no specific number and keeps only what can be checked — the depression's position, its direction of travel, and the fact that it may collide with the five-day break. Korea's "태풍" (typhoon) also trended at the same time.

Further west: Spain's meteorological agency (AEMET) issued yellow-to-orange heavy rain warnings for the Valencia and Alicante areas from 8 to 11 September, with local hourly rainfall forecast at 40 litres; Brazil's meteorological service (INMET) issued an alert over the same period for an extratropical cyclone off the coast of Rio Grande do Sul, with hail and gusts above 80 km/h in the south and southeast, and tornado risk in Paraná; Mexico's national meteorological service (SMN) announced that the 2026–2027 season will see 56 cold fronts pass through, with 3 arriving in September.

Anyone who has booked a ticket is probably doing the same thing: moving the departure day one day earlier, or one day later.

Why autumn typhoons are fiercer

China Weather (中国天气网) has popularised this division: storms forming from June to August are "summer typhoons", those formed from September to November are "autumn typhoons". The sun has shone all summer, ocean heat keeps accumulating, and sea temperatures are usually highest from August to September, giving typhoons more energy; at the same time, cold air becomes active from late August, the pressure gradient steepens, and wind speeds near the typhoon's centre are more easily intensified. China Weather's conclusion, based on data from 1949 to 2019, is that autumn typhoons are fewer in number than summer ones, but the probability of a severe or super typhoon is higher and their tracks are harder to forecast — the westerlies, the subtropical high and cold air all contend with one another, so a typhoon easily swings east and west.

The autumn equinox falls right at the tail of this week. According to the Hong Kong Observatory's published 2026 table of Gregorian and lunar dates, the equinox falls on 23 September; the equinox is a single moment worldwide, and each place counts it on its own day by its own time zone. The Collected Explanations of the Seventy-Two Seasonal Indicators of the Monthly Ordinances (《月令七十二候集解》) writes only one line about the equinox itself — "秋分，八月中，解见春分" (the autumn equinox, mid-eighth month, explained under the spring equinox) — and its phenological marker for this solar term is "雷始收声", the thunder begins to fall silent: the ancients took this stretch, when thunder is put away, as the boundary between summer and autumn.

What exactly does the almanac's "travel" taboo fear?

The day I finished booking, I flipped through the almanac. It gives two columns for each day, "宜" (suitable) and "忌" (avoid), and "travel" is a frequent guest: some days say travel is suitable, others say travel is to be avoided.

The reason it gives for the taboo is not quite the same as our worry about a typhoon. Traditional date selection sorts days into twelve "建除" states (建, 除, 满, 平, 定, 执, 破, 危, 成, 收, 开, 闭), then layers on the heavenly stems and earthly branches, solar terms and constellations, and marks one zodiac animal to avoid that day. That system's logic is "days have good and bad"; a modern weather forecast's logic is "airflows have tracks" — two causal views landing on the same thing: it is worth a look before you decide to go out.

Old travel customs were finer than today's: some people would not break a bowl or say anything unlucky before setting out; those travelling by water watched the wind direction; bridal boats and boats carrying exam candidates chose different days. In the end, handing "the weather cannot be controlled" to something you can consult is a labour-saving way for people to sit with uncertainty.

What to do if the typhoon really comes

I did not change my ticket. Typhoon forecasts change daily anyway: the Japan Meteorological Agency's explanation is blunt — you have to wait until the storm actually forms to read its track, and the updates over the next two days are the key decision point. The old approach still holds today — it is not that calculating a good day makes everything fine, but that you leave yourself room to change: book early, book refundable, keep an extra day.

If you too have been flipping through the calendar over something you cannot decide, writing the question down clearly and leaving margin in the variable parts is usually more useful than going in circles — and that is exactly the part of those old methods that stands up best to testing.

This article's information is current as of 15 September 2026; typhoon numbers, tracks and warnings are subject to the meteorological authorities' latest bulletins.

Disclaimer: This article covers traditional culture and folklore and is for entertainment and self-reflection only. It does not constitute medical, psychological, investment, legal or marital decision advice. Please do not submit sensitive personal information such as ID numbers or detailed addresses. If you are experiencing persistent insomnia, anxiety or physical discomfort, please seek medical attention or consult a professional promptly.

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