America's Old Farmer's Almanac and China's Huangli: Two Almanacs, One Winter
Yesterday a friend forwarded me a map and asked, "Is this accurate?"
The map was the "first snowfall" chart from America's Old Farmer's Almanac. He's a southerner, yet he suddenly cared so much about American snow — because he wanted to know whether this winter would be cold.
These past two days, the term "farmers almanac first snowfall map" even appeared on Google's US trending list. I glanced at my phone calendar: the first day of the eighth lunar month, four days past White Dew. One question, two ways of asking it: he asks the almanac; we ask the solar terms.
One Almanac, Reckoning the Weather for Over Two Hundred Years
America's The Old Farmer's Almanac was founded in 1792, and brought out its first edition the following year. This August it released, as usual, its 2026–2027 winter outlook: milder overall, but the Northeast, Appalachia and the Great Lakes region may still see colder-than-average temperatures and above-average snowfall (according to its official website and reporting by Newsweek).
How does it reckon it? In the official account, this is an undisclosed "secret formula" that takes sunspot activity and climate cycles into consideration. It sounds mystical, but it is essentially a product of "historical statistics + long-term cycles" — in plain speech: chew over the weather of past years again and again, then place a bet on the likeliest outcome.
By the way, America actually has two: besides this 1792 Old Farmer's Almanac, there is the Farmers' Almanac, founded in 1818, whose forecast this year says "strong contrasts between cold and warm, with an active storm track in the South." The two have been rivals for over two hundred years, and Americans still buy one in the autumn and flip to the winter pages.
On the Chinese Side, the Almanac Is Called the "Huangli"
The Chinese almanac (huangli, also called the tongshu or imperial calendar) is not a weather forecast; it is more like an "instruction manual for what is auspicious and what to avoid in daily life." It commonly involves these things:
| Tool | Function |
|---|---|
| The sexagenary cycle (ganzhi) | Each year, month, day and hour is matched with a set of heavenly stems and earthly branches, forming a time coordinate |
| The twelve Jianchu deities | Jian, chu, man, ping, ding, zhi, po, wei, cheng, shou, kai, bi — they set the "character" of each day |
| The twenty-four solar terms | Dividing the sun's position into 24 marks |
| The twenty-eight lunar mansions, chongsha clashes and the five elements | Different schools stress different parts, but all are widely used |
Among these, the earliest complete record of the twenty-four solar terms comes from the "Astronomical Teachings" chapter of the Huainanzi (Huainanzi · Tianwen Xun), compiled under the direction of Liu An, Prince of Huainan of the Western Han, and completed in the 2nd century BC — roughly two thousand years earlier than America's Old Farmer's Almanac.
Put the two systems side by side and it gets interesting:
- The Old Farmer's Almanac cares about "what the weather will be like"
- The huangli cares about "what is suitable to do today"
One is a prediction, the other an action guide.
They Are Really the Same Impulse
In the tradition of selecting auspicious days, weddings, groundbreaking, moving house and opening a business all call for choosing a day. The American almanacs do something similar — they attach a timetable to planting, harvesting and pruning. Both sides believe: the same action, on different days, brings different results.
You can call this superstition, or you can call it the "certainty" human beings gave themselves in an age when they had no better tools. To this day that certainty still does its work — not because the almanac is accurate, but because people need a reason to make a decision.
So to "will this winter be cold," my answer is: reading the almanac is no substitute for watching the weather service, but reading the almanac can get you to take out the blanket a little earlier.
If what you really want to ask is "should I do this thing now," then you needn't leaf through the almanac — describe your situation clearly, let 占卜迷指 recommend a suitable method and produce a chart and reading, but the decision is still yours to make. The almanac gives you days; what you actually need is a decision.
Sources
- The Old Farmer's Almanac: Winter 2026–2027 outlook
- Newsweek: report on the Old Farmer's Almanac 2026–27 winter map
- Farmers' Almanac: 2026–2027 winter weather outlook
- The "Astronomical Teachings" chapter of the Huainanzi and ancient Chinese astronomy and calendrics
Disclaimer: This article is traditional-culture and folklore content, for entertainment and self-reflection only. It does not constitute medical, psychological, investment, legal, or marital decision advice. Please do not submit sensitive personal information such as ID numbers or detailed home address. If you have persistent insomnia, anxiety, or physical discomfort, please seek medical attention or consult a professional promptly.